Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the leading global political risk research and consulting firm.
In 1998, Bremmer established Eurasia Group with just $25,000. At present, the company is the leading global political risk research and consulting firm, with offices in New York, Washington, and London, as well as a network of experts and resources in 90 countries. Eurasia Group provides analysis and expertise about how political developments and national security dynamics move markets and shape investment environments across the globe.
Bremmer created Wall Street’s first global political risk index (GPRI). He is the founding chairman of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk and is an active public speaker. He has authored several books including the national bestsellers Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World and The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? Bremmer is a contributor to the Financial Times A-List and Reuters.com. He has written hundreds of articles for publications including The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The New York Times, Newsweek, Harvard Business Review, and Foreign Affairs. He appears regularly on CNBC, Fox News Channel, Bloomberg Television, National Public Radio, the BBC, and other networks.
Bremmer earned a PhD in political science from Stanford University in 1994 and was the youngest-ever national fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is a global research professor at New York University and has held faculty positions at Columbia University, the EastWest Institute, and the World Policy Institute. In 2007, Bremmer was named a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum. His analysis focuses on global macro political trends and emerging markets, which he defines as “those countries where politics matter at least as much as economics for market outcomes.”
Bremmer grew up in Boston and currently lives in New York and Washington.
We have entered a period of heightened geopolitical and market volatility, what Ian Bremmer calls the “New Abnormal.” In the past few years, we’ve seen a financial crisis, a global recession, the Eurozone crisis, and the Arab Spring. All of this comes against the backdrop of a G-Zero world—an environment where no country or group of countries is willing and able to sustainably set the international agenda. This lack of global leadership will ensure that the ride gets even bumpier before the turbulence subsides. This world without leaders will undermine our ability over the next decade to keep the peace in Asia and the Middle East, to grow the global economy, to reverse the impact of climate change, to feed growing populations, and to protect the most basic of all necessities—air, food, and water. Its effects will be felt in every region of the world, even in cyberspace.
Today, the American-led global order faces a fundamental challenge. It is not, however, the rise of the “rest.” It’s the rise of the “different.” Rising emerging market nations are inherently less stable. What does this mean for the global order?
A generation after communism’s collapse, the future of free market capitalism isn’t what it used to be. Public wealth, public investment, and public ownership have made a stunning comeback.
The fallout from the still-unfolding global financial crisis provides several perfect examples of “fat tail” risk, those that flow from the low-probability, high-impact events that generate upheaval more often than we think. An understanding of the political dynamics generated by the financial crisis helps us forecast market risks, why politics matters more than ever for market performance, why the world’s wealthiest countries have begun to behave like emerging market states, and what all this means for investors and companies.
To navigate globalization’s choppy waters, every business leader analyzes economic risk when considering overseas investments or looking at market exposure. But do you look beyond reassuring data about per-capita income or economic growth–to assess the political risk of doing business in specific countries? If not, you may get blindsided when political forces shape markets in unexpected ways–from populist measures in advance of an election cycle to social unrest in many of the top emerging markets performers.