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Ian Bremmer

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President, Eurasia Group, Expert on Global Politics & Risk Management and Best-Selling Author

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Ian Bremmer – TED

5 Programs By This Presenter

We have entered a period of heightened geopolitical and market volatility, what Ian Bremmer calls the “New Abnormal.” In the past few years, we’ve seen a financial crisis, a global recession, the Eurozone crisis, and the Arab Spring. All of this comes against the backdrop of a G-Zero world—an environment where no country or group of countries is willing and able to sustainably set the international agenda. This lack of global leadership will ensure that the ride gets even bumpier before the turbulence subsides. This world without leaders will undermine our ability over the next decade to keep the peace in Asia and the Middle East, to grow the global economy, to reverse the impact of climate change, to feed growing populations, and to protect the most basic of all necessities—air, food, and water. Its effects will be felt in every region of the world, even in cyberspace.

Today, the American-led global order faces a fundamental challenge. It is not, however, the rise of the “rest.” It’s the rise of the “different.” Rising emerging market nations are inherently less stable. What does this mean for the global order?

A generation after communism’s collapse, the future of free market capitalism isn’t what it used to be. Public wealth, public investment, and public ownership have made a stunning comeback.

The fallout from the still-unfolding global financial crisis provides several perfect examples of “fat tail” risk, those that flow from the low-probability, high-impact events that generate upheaval more often than we think. An understanding of the political dynamics generated by the financial crisis helps us forecast market risks, why politics matters more than ever for market performance, why the world’s wealthiest countries have begun to behave like emerging market states, and what all this means for investors and companies.

To navigate globalization’s choppy waters, every business leader analyzes economic risk when considering overseas investments or looking at market exposure. But do you look beyond reassuring data about per-capita income or economic growth–to assess the political risk of doing business in specific countries? If not, you may get blindsided when political forces shape markets in unexpected ways–from populist measures in advance of an election cycle to social unrest in many of the top emerging markets performers.

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